Black Almanak open on-chain metrics for Bitcoin ● data
Young supply

Short-Term Holder Supply in Loss

Young coins whose acquisition price is above the current price.

Latest daily observationProvisional day
STH Supply in Loss
916,489.905 BTC
Bitcoin price
$82,448.31

Observation: UTC. Dataset updated: .
Updated daily, normally at 09:30 Europe/Madrid. Latest hourly bucket starts 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC (hour start).

This day is incomplete and may change. Daily flows accumulate through the latest update; they differ from a single hourly point.

Recent daily values

The last seven closed UTC days. These values remain daily when you change the chart range.

Short-Term Holder Supply in Loss — daily observations
Date (UTC)STH Supply in LossBitcoin price
2026-10-081,163,071.55 BTC$81,676.02
2026-10-071,105,751.817 BTC$83,274.86
2026-10-06517,645.785 BTC$85,553.52
2026-10-05181,998.076 BTC$85,756.06
2026-10-040 BTC$86,510.16
2026-10-03370,615.679 BTC$84,746.87
2026-10-02449,874.861 BTC$84,500.84

Formula

STH Supply in Loss = Σ(BTC in young creation-day buckets whose remaining average acquisition price is at or above current price).

How to read it

This is the portion of young supply classified in loss under the daily-bucket approximation. It describes the current cohort, not how long a drawdown will last or whether a rebound will follow.

Limitations

  • The implementation includes break-even buckets in this category. Classification uses daily bucket averages and is approximate; it is not equivalent to an entity-adjusted series.
  • On-chain movements include transfers between an owner's own wallets. They do not establish actual purchases, sales or investor identity.
  • The latest day is provisional. Data is updated daily; hourly resolution does not mean hourly publication.

Historical examples

Selected mechanically: the lowest and highest closed-day STH Supply in Loss in the available history (2023-01-01 to 2026-10-08). These are observations, not forecasts or trading signals.

Lowest observed

2026-09-21

STH Supply in Loss: 0 BTC.

Bitcoin price in the same daily row: $86,586.52. This counts outputs rather than distinct investors; wallet transfers can change cohort membership.

Highest observed

2026-02-12

STH Supply in Loss: 5,718,762.009 BTC.

Bitcoin price in the same daily row: $66,207.00. This counts outputs rather than distinct investors; wallet transfers can change cohort membership.

Download these closed daily observations (JSON)

Source: Computed from the chain (BigQuery public dataset crypto_bitcoin), hourly resolution. Price source: Bitstamp BTC/USD hourly candles. rows before 2025-10-06 computed with daily prices (Coin Metrics); hourly prices from then on Methodology and sources.