Methodology and sources
How Black Almanak computes Short-Term Holder metrics from the Bitcoin blockchain: definitions, data sources, hourly prices and validation checks.
Black Almanak calculates metrics from Bitcoin transaction outputs. An unspent transaction output (UTXO) is an amount of bitcoin available to spend. Here, short-term supply includes outputs created less than 155 calendar days ago.
Data sources
- Blockchain movements:
bigquery-public-data.crypto_bitcoin, queried and aggregated by our Python pipeline. - Hourly BTC/USD prices: Bitstamp candles.
- Earlier daily-price history: Coin Metrics Community Data, under CC BY-NC 4.0. Each dataset's source note identifies the transition.
Resolution and updates
Updates are scheduled daily at 09:30 Europe/Madrid. Hourly resolution means one point per hour, not a new publication every hour. Daily stock metrics use the final hour of the UTC day; daily flows aggregate that day's movements. The latest day is explicitly provisional.
What these metrics measure
Realized price is the volume-weighted price at an output's last movement. MVRV is price divided by realized price. NUPL is 1 − 1/MVRV. SOPR divides total value at spend time by total value at creation for young outputs spent in the period. Each chart documents its own formula and limits.
Limits and comparability
A movement is not necessarily a purchase or sale. Transfers between wallets belonging to the same owner are included. These are UTXO-based calculations, not proprietary entity-adjusted series. A similar chart name does not imply identical data to another provider. Supply in profit and loss uses average acquisition prices of daily creation buckets, not individual hourly costs for the classification.
Rolling statistics require a warm-up period. Cost-basis bands use the available daily history, so changing its start changes cumulative statistics. Hourly displays of daily-derived bands include the day's closing information and should not be used as a point-in-time trading backtest.
Access and reuse
The charts are free to view. Free access does not grant an unrestricted license to reuse third-party prices or derived data. Coin Metrics requires attribution and limits commercial use; Bitstamp documents a commercial data licensing process. Review the linked source terms before redistribution. No blanket commercial reuse license is asserted here.
Historical examples
Examples show the minimum and maximum of the main metric among closed daily observations in this dataset. Missing values and the provisional day are excluded. This selection illustrates the observed range, not a profitable strategy.
Nothing here is investment advice. Historical observations do not predict future returns.