2018-12-15
Bitcoin Risk Metric: 0.0000.
Bitcoin price in the same daily row: $3,185.07. Price stood far below its long-term average relative to its own history.
Market cycle
Bitcoin Risk Metric
Price relative to its own history on a 0 to 1 scale, since 2010.
Latest daily observationClosed day
- Bitcoin Risk Metric
- 0.3823
- 374-day moving average
- $79,530.47
- Bitcoin price
- $83,141.42
Observation: UTC. Dataset updated: .
Updated daily, normally at 09:30 Europe/Madrid. Daily resolution.
Scale extremes: 0 = 2018-12-15, 1 = 2017-12-16. A new all-time extreme would rescale the whole history.
Recent daily values
The last seven closed UTC days. These values remain daily when you change the chart range.
| Date (UTC) | Bitcoin Risk Metric | 374-day moving average | Bitcoin price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 0.3823 | $79,530.47 | $83,141.42 |
| 2026-10-12 | 0.3737 | $79,635.38 | $81,805.16 |
| 2026-10-11 | 0.3839 | $79,743.79 | $83,636.61 |
| 2026-10-10 | 0.3793 | $79,842.51 | $82,948.86 |
| 2026-10-09 | 0.3764 | $79,937.28 | $82,562.56 |
| 2026-10-08 | 0.3709 | $80,021.26 | $81,731.88 |
| 2026-10-07 | 0.3795 | $80,108.45 | $83,273.72 |
Formula
MA = arithmetic mean of the daily close over the last 374 days. raw = ln(price / MA) × n^0.395, where n is the number of days since 2010-07-18 (day 1). Risk = (raw − min raw) / (max raw − min raw) over the full history. The first 30 days are left blank.
How to read it
The metric measures how far the price stands above or below its own 374-day average, in logarithmic terms, and rescales that distance to a range from 0 to 1 over the whole history since 2010.
Readings near 1 have coincided with past cycle tops (late 2013 at 0.95, December 2017 at 1.00, April 2021 at 0.80). Readings near 0 have coincided with past bottoms (January 2015 at 0.04, December 2018 at 0.00, November 2022 at 0.04). The middle of the range means price is close to its long-term trend.
Each cycle deviates less from its average than the previous one. A time factor that grows slowly with the age of the series compensates for that, so tops from different cycles land at comparable heights.
Limitations
- Price-only: it does not use on-chain, derivatives or macro data, and it is not the proprietary risk metric of any other provider. Parameters (374 days, 0.395) are the widely used open-source ones.
- The scale uses the historical minimum and maximum of the raw score. A new all-time extreme rescales every past value; the dates of the current extremes are listed with the latest observation.
- The time factor and the normalization are chosen with the benefit of hindsight. The chart describes the past and should not be read as a backtested trading signal or a forecast.
- Daily closes from Coin Metrics Community Data, which publishes each day with about one day of delay.
Historical examples
Selected mechanically: the lowest and highest closed-day Bitcoin Risk Metric in the available history (2010-08-17 to 2026-10-13). These are observations, not forecasts or trading signals.
2017-12-16
Bitcoin Risk Metric: 1.0000.
Bitcoin price in the same daily row: $19,640.51. Price stood far above its long-term average relative to its own history.
Download these closed daily observations (JSON)
Source: Computed from daily BTC/USD prices. Price source: Coin Metrics Community Data (CC BY-NC 4.0). Price-only metric with daily history since 2010-07-18; values rescale if a new all-time extreme appears. Methodology and sources.