2026-02-05
STH-MVRV (90-day adjusted): -0.2349.
Bitcoin price in the same daily row: $62,795.00. This is a descriptive reference point in this dataset; it does not establish a market top, bottom or future return.
Bitcoin: Short-Term Holder Behavior Analysis
Price with the 90-day-adjusted STH MVRV and its ±1σ lines.
Latest daily observationProvisional day
- STH-MVRV (90-day adjusted)
- 0.0250
- +1σ line
- 0.1150
- −1σ line
- -0.0913
- Bitcoin price
- $82,181.97
Observation: UTC. Dataset updated: .
Updated daily, normally at 09:30 Europe/Madrid. Latest hourly bucket starts 2026-10-22 07:00 UTC (hour start).
This day is incomplete and may change. Daily flows accumulate through the latest update; they differ from a single hourly point.
Data cross-checked. Derived from STH-MVRV, which is cross-checked daily against an independent on-chain data provider: median difference 0.53% over 1,384 days (2023-01-01 to 2026-10-15); 95% of days within 2.07%. Checked 2026-10-22. Data status
Recent daily values
The last seven closed UTC days. These values remain daily when you change the chart range.
| Date (UTC) | STH-MVRV (90-day adjusted) | +1σ line | −1σ line | Bitcoin price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 0.0495 | 0.1148 | -0.0917 | $84,023.24 |
| 2026-10-20 | 0.0397 | 0.1145 | -0.0922 | $82,946.03 |
| 2026-10-19 | 0.0282 | 0.1143 | -0.0925 | $81,840.01 |
| 2026-10-18 | 0.0324 | 0.1141 | -0.0930 | $82,001.58 |
| 2026-10-17 | 0.0263 | 0.1139 | -0.0935 | $81,384.63 |
| 2026-10-16 | 0.0288 | 0.1137 | -0.0940 | $81,501.10 |
| 2026-10-15 | 0.0387 | 0.1135 | -0.0945 | $82,131.10 |
Formula
Adjusted MVRV = STH-MVRV / SMA90(STH-MVRV) − 1. Thresholds = rolling 365-day mean of adjusted MVRV ± its population standard deviation.
How to read it
A zero adjusted value means MVRV equals its 90-day average. The upper and lower lines describe departures from the recent historical distribution; crossing them does not prove selling or capitulation.
Limitations
- Statistics use daily observations, with at least 30 adjusted observations for the threshold window. Hourly points use daily baselines, including that day's close, so historical intraday views are not point-in-time backtests.
- On-chain movements include transfers between an owner's own wallets. They do not establish actual purchases, sales or investor identity.
- The latest day is provisional. Data is updated daily; hourly resolution does not mean hourly publication.
Historical examples
Selected mechanically: the lowest and highest closed-day STH-MVRV (90-day adjusted) in the available history (2023-03-31 to 2026-10-21). These are observations, not forecasts or trading signals.
2024-11-11
STH-MVRV (90-day adjusted): 0.3075.
Bitcoin price in the same daily row: $88,860.00. This is a descriptive reference point in this dataset; it does not establish a market top, bottom or future return.
Download these closed daily observations (JSON)
Source: Computed from the chain (BigQuery public dataset crypto_bitcoin), hourly resolution. Price source: Bitstamp BTC/USD hourly candles. rows before 2025-10-06 computed with daily prices (Coin Metrics); hourly prices from then on Methodology and sources.