2023-11-27
30D Correlation: -0.6028.
Bitcoin price in the same daily row: $37,229.25. This is a descriptive reference point in this dataset; it does not establish a market top, bottom or future return.
Bitcoin: Correlation to Gold
Rolling 30, 90 and 365-day correlation between daily Bitcoin and gold returns.
Latest daily observationClosed day
- 30D Correlation
- 0.3083
- 90D Correlation
- 0.4819
- 365D Correlation
- 0.3759
- Gold Price
- $4,156.17
- Bitcoin price
- $81,268.94
Observation: UTC. Dataset updated: .
Updated daily, normally at 09:30 Europe/Madrid. Daily resolution.
Data cross-checked. Computed from daily BTC/USD closes and a gold price from two gold-backed tokens (PAX Gold and Tether Gold). Price: cross-checked against Bitstamp daily BTC/USD close (independent exchange) (median difference 0.15% over 5,540 days (2011-08-18 to 2026-10-17); 95% of days within 1.78%). Gold: PAX Gold and Tether Gold prices agree with a median difference 0.37% over 1,740 days (2020-02-17 to 2026-10-16); 95% of days within 1.37%; 98% of weekdays kept after dropping days on which they disagree by more than 2%. Checked 2026-10-18. Data status
Recent daily values
The last seven closed UTC days. These values remain daily when you change the chart range.
| Date (UTC) | 30D Correlation | 90D Correlation | 365D Correlation | Gold Price | Bitcoin price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | 0.3083 | 0.4819 | 0.3759 | $4,156.17 | $81,268.94 |
| 2026-10-16 | 0.3083 | 0.4819 | 0.3759 | $4,156.17 | $81,538.30 |
| 2026-10-15 | 0.3130 | 0.4828 | 0.3637 | $4,153.75 | $82,116.23 |
| 2026-10-14 | 0.2954 | 0.4820 | 0.3602 | $4,106.52 | $81,498.52 |
| 2026-10-13 | 0.2343 | 0.4828 | 0.3573 | $4,155.36 | $83,141.42 |
| 2026-10-12 | 0.2378 | 0.4857 | 0.3595 | $4,167.13 | $81,805.16 |
| 2026-10-11 | 0.2821 | 0.5180 | 0.3542 | $4,180.91 | $83,636.61 |
Formula
Correlation_N = Pearson correlation of the daily log returns of BTC and gold over the last N calendar days (N = 30, 90, 365), using weekday returns only: gold markets close at weekends, so Monday's return runs from Friday's close. Gold price = average of PAX Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUT), each backed by one troy ounce of physical gold.
How to read it
Correlation measures how closely the daily moves of Bitcoin and gold go together. +1 means they always move in the same direction and proportion, −1 that they always move in opposite directions, and values near 0 that their daily moves are unrelated.
The 30-day line reacts quickly and is noisy; the 90-day and 365-day lines show the slower relationship. Readings above zero mean Bitcoin has recently tended to rise and fall with gold; readings below zero, that it has tended to move against it.
A correlation only describes how the two moved together in the past window. It does not say which one leads, how large the moves were, or what happens next.
Limitations
- Gold is represented by two gold-backed tokens from different issuers rather than by the spot price. Both track spot gold closely, but they trade around the clock and can drift briefly; days on which they disagree by more than 2% are left out. The 30-day line rests on about 21 daily returns and can differ by a few hundredths from a version built on spot gold.
- History starts in 2020, when both tokens have daily prices; each line starts once its window holds at least 80% of its weekdays.
- Weekend and holiday rows repeat the last weekday's values, since gold does not trade then.
- Glassnode does not publish how its version is built (prices or returns, which gold price); this chart uses the standard construction on daily returns described in the formula.
Historical examples
Selected mechanically: the lowest and highest closed-day 30D Correlation in the available history (2020-03-17 to 2026-10-17). These are observations, not forecasts or trading signals.
2020-03-17
30D Correlation: 0.8370.
Bitcoin price in the same daily row: $5,416.75. This is a descriptive reference point in this dataset; it does not establish a market top, bottom or future return.
Download these closed daily observations (JSON)
Source: Computed by Black Almanak from daily BTC/USD closes and a gold price from two gold-backed tokens (PAX Gold and Tether Gold). Price source: Coin Metrics Community Data (CC BY-NC 4.0). Daily history since 2020, when both gold-backed tokens have prices; correlations start once each window is full. Methodology and sources.