2010-10-05
Price / Power-Law Model: 0.2175.
Bitcoin price in the same daily row: $0.06. This is a descriptive reference point in this dataset; it does not establish a market top, bottom or future return.
Power-Law Model
A straight-line trend of price against time on log-log axes.
Latest daily observationClosed day
- Price / Power-Law Model
- 0.5157
- Power-Law Model
- $157,590.97
- Bitcoin price
- $81,268.94
Observation: UTC. Dataset updated: .
Updated daily, normally at 09:30 Europe/Madrid. Daily resolution.
Data cross-checked. Computed from the validated daily BTC close and a fixed power-law trend of days since the genesis block. Price: cross-checked against Bitstamp daily BTC/USD close (independent exchange) (median difference 0.15% over 5,540 days (2011-08-18 to 2026-10-17); 95% of days within 1.78%). Checked 2026-10-18. Data status
Recent daily values
The last seven closed UTC days. These values remain daily when you change the chart range.
| Date (UTC) | Price / Power-Law Model | Power-Law Model | Bitcoin price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | 0.5157 | $157,590.97 | $81,268.94 |
| 2026-10-16 | 0.5179 | $157,452.50 | $81,538.30 |
| 2026-10-15 | 0.5220 | $157,314.12 | $82,116.23 |
| 2026-10-14 | 0.5185 | $157,175.85 | $81,498.52 |
| 2026-10-13 | 0.5294 | $157,037.68 | $83,141.42 |
| 2026-10-12 | 0.5214 | $156,899.61 | $81,805.16 |
| 2026-10-11 | 0.5335 | $156,761.64 | $83,636.61 |
Formula
Model = exp(5.71 x ln(days) - 38.16), where days = days since the genesis block (2009-01-03). Indicator axis: daily close / model. Coefficients from a least-squares fit of ln(close) on ln(days) over closes up to 2024-03-21 (R^2 = 0.953).
How to read it
Plot the logarithm of the Bitcoin price against the logarithm of the number of days since the genesis block of 3 January 2009 and the points fall close to a straight line. The model is that line: one slope and one intercept, fixed once and then extended day by day. It is drawn on the price axis next to the daily close.
The indicator axis shows the close divided by the model value. Above 1 the market trades over the long-run trend, below 1 under it. Past cycle peaks went from about 16 times the trend in 2011 to about 3 times in 2021, each one lower than the last, while the bear-market lows of 2015, 2018 and 2022 bottomed at roughly 0.35 to 0.55 of it.
The line was fitted with hindsight to prices up to March 2024, and consecutive days are not independent observations, so the good fit overstates how reliable it is. Read it as a description of the past, not a forecast of where price must go.
Limitations
- The slope and intercept are the published ones and stay fixed; refitting on more recent prices would move the line. Our own refit on Coin Metrics closes from 2010-07-18 to 2024-03-21 gives 5.707, -38.143 and R^2 0.9533, in line with the published values.
- Glassnode publishes the model line itself; the close-to-model ratio on the indicator axis is our own presentation of the same line.
- Our price history starts on 2010-07-18, so the chart starts there; the model line could be drawn back to 2009 but there is no close to compare with.
- A long-run trend fitted to one asset's past says nothing about timing and can stop holding at any point.
Historical examples
Selected mechanically: the lowest and highest closed-day Price / Power-Law Model in the available history (2010-07-18 to 2026-10-17). These are observations, not forecasts or trading signals.
2011-06-08
Price / Power-Law Model: 16.0575.
Bitcoin price in the same daily row: $29.03. This is a descriptive reference point in this dataset; it does not establish a market top, bottom or future return.
Download these closed daily observations (JSON)
Source: Computed by Black Almanak from the validated daily BTC close and a fixed power-law trend of days since the genesis block. Price source: Coin Metrics Community Data (CC BY-NC 4.0). Daily history since 2010-07-18. Methodology and sources.