2022-11-21
BPT: -0.4150.
Bitcoin price in the same daily row: $15,778.02. This is a descriptive reference point in this dataset; it does not establish a market top, bottom or future return.
BTC: Price Temperature
How many standard deviations price sits above or below its 4-year average.
Latest daily observationClosed day
- BPT
- 0.6436
- BPT0 band (4-year mean)
- $64,873.48
- BPT2 band (+2 deviations)
- $124,855.22
- BPT6 band (+6 deviations)
- $244,818.70
- BPT8 band (+8 deviations)
- $304,800.44
- Bitcoin price
- $84,176.08
Observation: UTC. Dataset updated: .
Updated daily, normally at 09:30 Europe/Madrid. Daily resolution.
Data cross-checked. Computed from the validated daily BTC close (1,460-day mean and standard deviation). Price: cross-checked against Bitstamp daily BTC/USD close (independent exchange) (median difference 0.15% over 5,544 days (2011-08-18 to 2026-10-21); 95% of days within 1.78%). Checked 2026-10-22. Data status
Recent daily values
The last seven closed UTC days. These values remain daily when you change the chart range.
| Date (UTC) | BPT | BPT0 band (4-year mean) | BPT2 band (+2 deviations) | BPT6 band (+6 deviations) | BPT8 band (+8 deviations) | Bitcoin price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 0.6436 | $64,873.48 | $124,855.22 | $244,818.70 | $304,800.44 | $84,176.08 |
| 2026-10-20 | 0.6021 | $64,828.98 | $124,849.76 | $244,891.31 | $304,912.09 | $82,898.91 |
| 2026-10-19 | 0.5705 | $64,785.33 | $124,846.15 | $244,967.79 | $305,028.61 | $81,918.20 |
| 2026-10-18 | 0.5721 | $64,742.26 | $124,844.05 | $245,047.63 | $305,149.42 | $81,935.17 |
| 2026-10-17 | 0.5510 | $64,699.24 | $124,841.64 | $245,126.42 | $305,268.82 | $81,268.94 |
| 2026-10-16 | 0.5610 | $64,656.83 | $124,839.75 | $245,205.61 | $305,388.53 | $81,538.30 |
| 2026-10-15 | 0.5812 | $64,614.37 | $124,837.04 | $245,282.36 | $305,505.03 | $82,116.23 |
Formula
BPT = (close − mean of the last 1,460 closes) / standard deviation of the last 1,460 closes. Bands: BPTk = mean + k × standard deviation, for k = 0, 2, 6 and 8. Population standard deviation; the first reading is on 2014-07-16, 1,460 days after our price history begins.
How to read it
Take the last four years of daily Bitcoin closes, about one halving cycle, and work out their average and how widely they are spread around it (the standard deviation). The temperature is today's close measured in those units: 0 means price is right at its 4-year average, 2 means it is two standard deviations above it. The thick line on the indicator axis is that reading; the dotted lines mark 0, 2, 6 and 8.
The same arithmetic run backwards turns each level into a price: the 4-year average itself (BPT0) and the average plus 2, 6 and 8 deviations. Those four bands are drawn on the price axis, so you can see which price would take the market to a given temperature. On our closes the 2017 top ran close to 9, the 2021 run peaked near 7 in January, and the bear-market lows of 2015, 2018 and 2022 sat around 0 or slightly below it.
Because the spread is measured over the same four years, a long rally widens the bands as it goes, and the same price gap from the average reads cooler in a volatile cycle than in a quiet one. Past peaks have also cooled from one cycle to the next. It is a description of how stretched price is against its own recent history, not a forecast.
Limitations
- Built from one daily close per day (Coin Metrics Community Data). Glassnode builds its price from a volume-weighted average across exchanges, so readings can differ slightly, most of all in 2014-2015, when the window still holds the thin markets of 2010-2012.
- Glassnode gives a 1,460-day window but does not say whether it uses the population or the sample standard deviation; with 1,460 days the two differ by 0.03%, far below what the chart can show.
- The first four years of price history serve only as the first window, so the chart starts in July 2014 and does not cover the 2011 and 2013 peaks.
- Few cycles stand behind the 6 and 8 levels, and each peak so far has run cooler than the one before, so past extremes may not be reached again.
Historical examples
Selected mechanically: the lowest and highest closed-day BPT in the available history (2014-07-16 to 2026-10-21). These are observations, not forecasts or trading signals.
2017-12-07
BPT: 9.5619.
Bitcoin price in the same daily row: $17,032.29. This is a descriptive reference point in this dataset; it does not establish a market top, bottom or future return.
Download these closed daily observations (JSON)
Source: Computed by Black Almanak from the validated daily BTC close (1,460-day mean and standard deviation). Price source: Coin Metrics Community Data (CC BY-NC 4.0). Daily history since 2010-07-18. Methodology and sources.